Research study
Favourite Versus Rest-of-Field Probability in Nine-Runner Races
Normalized field probabilities show the favourite can lead individually while the rest of the field remains collectively more likely.
Research question
How do individual favourite probabilities compare with grouped longshot segments?
Dataset
Sport horse-racing · model horse-multi-runner-1.0.0 · 5,000 seeded races · seed study-fav-field
Findings
- Highest individual normalized probability is not a “best pick.”
- Grouped +875-and-longer segments can rival a favourite collectively.
Limitations
- Depends on field-shape and pricing-noise configuration.
- Requires independent performance vs pricing models.