Frequently asked questions
Questions about Novus Odds
Answers about simulations, market assumptions, experiment results, privacy, and the purpose of the platform.
Where can I learn how to read breakdown panels?
Open the Breakdowns guide at /help/breakdowns. It explains edge, EV, vig, ROI, drawdown, odds buckets, strategy overlays, hot streaks, consistent bands, horse-field frequencies, casino house edge, and practical educational use cases. Each lab header and breakdown panel also links to the matching section.
Is Novus Odds a sportsbook?
No. Novus Odds does not accept wagers, hold gambling balances, or place bets. It is a probability and simulation application.
Does Novus Odds use live sportsbook or casino data?
No. Every lab creates synthetic markets and fictional entities using documented mathematical assumptions. There are no live odds APIs or historical sportsbook feeds.
Can the simulations predict real sporting events?
No. The labs are not real-event prediction engines. They study probability, pricing assumptions, expected value, variance, house edge, and simulated outcomes.
Will these strategies beat a real casino or sportsbook?
Not as a guarantee. Simulations can illustrate mathematical edges under known assumptions, but real products retain vig or house edge, and variance means you will not always win. Past simulated results do not predict future gambling results.
Why can a profitable expected value experiment still lose money?
Expected value describes a long-run mathematical average under the assumed probabilities. Random variance can produce losses over limited samples even when expected value is positive.
What does the random seed do?
The seed initializes the pseudo-random sequence used by the simulation. Using the same settings and seed reproduces the same generated experiment.
Where are experiment results saved?
Recent results are stored locally in the browser. They are not currently synchronized to a user account or remote database.
What is pricing uncertainty?
It controls the amount of simulated deviation between the baseline market probability and the experiment's underlying true probability. The deviation is applied in logit space so probabilities remain valid.
What is market overround?
Overround is the amount by which combined quoted implied probabilities exceed a fair 100% probability market. The current model uses a simplified proportional margin assumption for experimentation.
Why are expected ROI and observed ROI different?
Expected ROI is calculated from the simulated underlying probabilities before outcomes occur. Observed ROI is calculated from the actual randomly generated wins and losses. Variance causes the two values to differ.