Novus Odds
 

Research study

How Often Does a Fair +700 Outcome Appear Across Ten Trials?

Binomial analysis of a fair +700 price over ten independent trials shows high chance of at least one win alongside frequent net unit losses at the modal win count.

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Research question

What is the short-sample outcome distribution for a fair +700 price?

Dataset

Sport general · model repeated-price-1.0.0 · Analytical PMF + seeded Monte Carlo · seed study-700-10

Findings

  • At fair 12.5%, P(at least one win in 10) is about 73.7%.
  • The single most likely win count can still produce a net unit loss.
  • Long-run expectation is zero before margin; volatility remains large.

Limitations

  • Assumes independence unless correlation mode is enabled.
  • Synthetic only — not a real-market claim.
Responsible use: synthetic results are educational only and do not identify real-world profitable selections. Read the responsible-use page.