Model Comparison Lab
Simulation method experiments
Compare selection rules and unit-size progressions against synthetic odds streams. Observed win rate alone is never enough — price and simulated unit path matter.
Guide
How this lab works
Strategy Lab
Stake rules and selection heuristics on synthetic market tapes, with overlays, bands, and streak lenses.
Families include flat, threshold, edge filters, hot-streak chase, bankroll-percent, Martingale, random, and more. Optional compare family runs a second rule.
Read the strategy matrix and bankroll path alongside overlays, consistent bands, and hot-streak panels — selection quality and stake sizing are different questions.
Real-world use case
- Hold the market tape fixed (same seed) and swap only the stake family to isolate progression risk.
- Use Martingale specifically to watch bankruptcies and drawdown under negative EV casino-like or vig-heavy settings.
Strategy overlay breakdown
Same synthetic events, different selection rules — selection share, win rate, EV ROI, observed ROI.
Overlays answer counterfactuals: if every rule had seen this tape, which would have selected how much, and with what model EV vs realized ROI?
Selection share matters. A rule that picks 2% of events can show noisy observed ROI even when EV looks attractive.
Real-world use case
- Compare “flat all” vs “edge ≥ 5%” vs “hot-streak chase” on one Odds Lab result before opening Strategy Lab for stake-path experiments.
- Look for strategies where EV ROI is positive but observed ROI is negative — a short-sample cautionary tale.
Consistent price-band selection
Always selecting the same odds band — win rate and ROI when price is held roughly constant.
Consistent bands isolate price. Instead of chasing edges or streaks, you always take events inside a fixed American-odds window.
Win rate should roughly track the band’s typical break-even probability after vig; ROI shows whether that was enough under the simulated true probabilities.
Real-world use case
- Compare a mid-dog band (+200 to +299) against a longshot band (+700 to +999) on the same seed to see win-rate vs payout trade-offs.