Novus Odds
 
LabsIntermediate· 8 min read· 4 steps

Compare staking strategies in Strategy Lab

Hold the market tape fixed and swap only the stake rule to isolate progression risk — flat, edge, hot-streak, Martingale, and more.

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Open the Model Comparison Lab
  1. 1

    Choose a strategy family

    Flat, threshold, edge filter, bankroll-percent, hot-streak, Martingale, anti-Martingale, or random. Each answers a different question about selection vs sizing.

  2. 2

    Fix the seed, vary the family

    Keep the same seed so both arms see the identical market tape. Now any difference in outcome is due to the staking rule, not luck.

  3. 3

    Read the strategy matrix

    Compare win rate, expected ROI, observed ROI, max drawdown, and longest losing streak across families side by side.

  4. 4

    Watch ruin, not just ROI

    Progressive stakes like Martingale can match flat staking in lucky runs while hiding far higher drawdown and bankruptcy risk.

    Tip: Set a compare family to overlay two staking rules on one chart.

Key takeaways

  • Same seed isolates the staking effect.
  • Selection quality and stake sizing are different questions.
  • Drawdown and ruin expose what average ROI hides.
Related breakdowns guide →All tutorials →
Responsible use: these tutorials teach probability mathematics with synthetic data. They do not identify real-world profitable selections. Read the responsible-use page.