Novus Odds blog
Betting mathematics, explained
Educational articles on probability, expected value, de-vigging, Kelly staking, calibration and the mathematics behind every Novus Odds tool. Synthetic data only — never betting advice.
Methodology
Removing the Vig: Four Methods Compared
There is no single 'fair' price behind a margin — there are several de-vig methods, and they disagree most exactly where it matters, on longshots.
Jul 24, 2026 · 11 min read
Methodology
Odds Bands Explained: Why Favourites and Longshots Behave Differently
Grouping prices into bands reveals structure you can't see event-by-event: how often each price appears, how often it wins, and where calibration drifts.
Jul 23, 2026 · 10 min read
Methodology
What Expected Value Really Means in a Synthetic Market
EV is the most quoted and least understood number in betting mathematics. Here is what it measures, what it ignores, and why a positive-EV lab result is not a promise.
Jul 22, 2026 · 10 min read