Calibration
Odds bands
Expected versus observed rates by analytical band. Each band shows a 95% Wilson interval on the observed rate and a two-sided proportion z-test against the expected rate; the header reports a Pearson chi-square goodness-of-fit across every band. Differences are calibration deviations in synthetic samples — not betting tips. Patterns must survive re-seeding and sample-size checks before they are noteworthy.
Dataset synthetic-v1 · generated 2026-07-26T03:36:21.368Z
χ² 17.07 · df 9approx p 0.0473 significant bandsSynthetic calibration · not a wagering signal
| Band | Events | Expected | Observed | 95% Wilson | Difference | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +200 to +299 | 8,000 | 25.37% | 26.51% | 25.56% – 27.49% | +1.14% | p 0.019 |
| +500 to +799 | 18,000 | 12.82% | 12.54% | 12.07% – 13.04% | -0.27% | within noise |
| +800 to +1199 | 6,000 | 8.68% | 9.52% | 8.80% – 10.29% | +0.84% | p 0.021 |
| +1200 to +1999 | 2,000 | 4.37% | 3.55% | 2.82% – 4.45% | -0.82% | within noise |
| +2000 to +4999 | 4,000 | 3.05% | 2.83% | 2.36% – 3.39% | -0.22% | within noise |
| +110 to +199 | 8,000 | 37.49% | 37.30% | 36.25% – 38.37% | -0.19% | within noise |
| -109 to +109 | 4,000 | 46.54% | 47.10% | 45.56% – 48.65% | +0.56% | within noise |
| -149 to -110 | 8,000 | 51.73% | 51.45% | 50.35% – 52.54% | -0.28% | within noise |
| -199 to -150 | 4,000 | 61.98% | 62.28% | 60.76% – 63.76% | +0.29% | within noise |
| -499 to -300 | 2,000 | 72.73% | 69.55% | 67.50% – 71.53% | -3.18% | p 0.001 |
Real-world use case
- Reload a sport's statistics page with a different batch seed and check whether a flagged band stays significant — one-off flags are usually noise.
- Compare a favourite band's tight Wilson interval against a longshot band's wide one to see why long prices need far more events before a deviation means anything.