Sport statistics
Handball
High-scoring possession handball profiles.
Dataset synthetic-v1 · generated 2026-07-26T03:35:43.435Z
Events
2,000
Average margin
5.11%
Model version
1.1.0
Calibration significance
Expected vs observed by participant
Each synthetic participant’s margin-adjusted price-implied rate against its observed win frequency over 2,000 simulated events, with a 95% Wilson interval, a proportion z-test, and a whole-field chi-square goodness-of-fit. Because the pricing and performance models are independent, well-calibrated sides land inside the Wilson band.
| Band | Events | Expected | Observed | 95% Wilson | Difference | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2,000 | 66.12% | 65.40% | 63.29% – 67.45% | -0.72% | within noise |
| Away | 2,000 | 33.88% | 34.60% | 32.55% – 36.71% | +0.72% | within noise |
Edge detection
Edge detection
Mathematical discrepancies
4 synthetic discrepancy signals detected (0 strong, 1 notable). Illustrative only — look-ahead signals are not realizable live edges.
Home: priced vs fair
The priced probability sits above the de-vigged fair line — the built-in margin you pay on this selection.
notable+3.58%
Home: calibration drift
Observed win rate differs from the price-implied rate by a statistically significant margin in this sample.
info-4.30%
Home: model vs marketlook-ahead
Gap between the simulation's true probability and the priced implied probability. Look-ahead: the true value is unknown in real markets.
info-3.95%
Away: priced vs fair
The priced probability sits above the de-vigged fair line — the built-in margin you pay on this selection.
info+1.83%
Synthetic, look-ahead discrepancies — illustrative only. They use the simulation’s known true probabilities and are not realizable live edges.
Real-world use case
- Reload a sport's statistics page with a different batch seed and check whether a flagged band stays significant — one-off flags are usually noise.
- Compare a favourite band's tight Wilson interval against a longshot band's wide one to see why long prices need far more events before a deviation means anything.