Sport statistics
Golf
Stroke-play field ranking for synthetic golf rounds.
Dataset synthetic-v1 · generated 2026-07-26T03:34:49.300Z
Events
2,000
Average margin
8.87%
Model version
1.1.0
Calibration significance
Expected vs observed by participant
Each synthetic participant’s margin-adjusted price-implied rate against its observed win frequency over 2,000 simulated events, with a 95% Wilson interval, a proportion z-test, and a whole-field chi-square goodness-of-fit. Because the pricing and performance models are independent, well-calibrated sides land inside the Wilson band.
| Band | Events | Expected | Observed | 95% Wilson | Difference | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golfer 1 | 2,000 | 12.86% | 12.90% | 11.50% – 14.44% | +0.04% | within noise |
| Golfer 2 | 2,000 | 13.81% | 13.25% | 11.83% – 14.81% | -0.56% | within noise |
| Golfer 3 | 2,000 | 14.02% | 14.35% | 12.88% – 15.95% | +0.33% | within noise |
| Golfer 4 | 2,000 | 11.03% | 11.20% | 9.89% – 12.66% | +0.17% | within noise |
| Golfer 5 | 2,000 | 12.19% | 12.30% | 10.93% – 13.81% | +0.11% | within noise |
| Golfer 6 | 2,000 | 10.71% | 10.35% | 9.09% – 11.76% | -0.36% | within noise |
| Golfer 7 | 2,000 | 11.87% | 12.20% | 10.84% – 13.71% | +0.33% | within noise |
| Golfer 8 | 2,000 | 13.51% | 13.45% | 12.02% – 15.02% | -0.06% | within noise |
Edge detection
Edge detection
Mathematical discrepancies
3 synthetic discrepancy signals detected (0 strong, 0 notable). Illustrative only — look-ahead signals are not realizable live edges.
Golfer 2: +EVlook-ahead
Positive expected value per unit under the assumed true probability. Educational only — not a live edge.
info+1.24%
Golfer 3: priced vs fair
The priced probability sits above the de-vigged fair line — the built-in margin you pay on this selection.
info+1.02%
Golfer 2: priced vs fair
The priced probability sits above the de-vigged fair line — the built-in margin you pay on this selection.
info+1.01%
Synthetic, look-ahead discrepancies — illustrative only. They use the simulation’s known true probabilities and are not realizable live edges.
Real-world use case
- Reload a sport's statistics page with a different batch seed and check whether a flagged band stays significant — one-off flags are usually noise.
- Compare a favourite band's tight Wilson interval against a longshot band's wide one to see why long prices need far more events before a deviation means anything.