Sport statistics
American football
Discrete scoring / drive-style synthetic football matches.
Dataset synthetic-v1 · generated 2026-07-26T03:36:56.118Z
Events
2,000
Average margin
5.76%
Model version
1.1.0
Calibration significance
Expected vs observed by participant
Each synthetic participant’s margin-adjusted price-implied rate against its observed win frequency over 2,000 simulated events, with a 95% Wilson interval, a proportion z-test, and a whole-field chi-square goodness-of-fit. Because the pricing and performance models are independent, well-calibrated sides land inside the Wilson band.
| Band | Events | Expected | Observed | 95% Wilson | Difference | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2,000 | 58.30% | 60.15% | 57.99% – 62.27% | +1.85% | within noise |
| Away | 2,000 | 41.70% | 39.85% | 37.73% – 42.01% | -1.85% | within noise |
Edge detection
Edge detection
Mathematical discrepancies
4 synthetic discrepancy signals detected (0 strong, 0 notable). Illustrative only — look-ahead signals are not realizable live edges.
Away: calibration drift
Observed win rate differs from the price-implied rate by a statistically significant margin in this sample.
info-3.63%
Away: model vs marketlook-ahead
Gap between the simulation's true probability and the priced implied probability. Look-ahead: the true value is unknown in real markets.
info-3.30%
Home: priced vs fair
The priced probability sits above the de-vigged fair line — the built-in margin you pay on this selection.
info+2.49%
Away: priced vs fair
The priced probability sits above the de-vigged fair line — the built-in margin you pay on this selection.
info+1.78%
Synthetic, look-ahead discrepancies — illustrative only. They use the simulation’s known true probabilities and are not realizable live edges.
Real-world use case
- Reload a sport's statistics page with a different batch seed and check whether a flagged band stays significant — one-off flags are usually noise.
- Compare a favourite band's tight Wilson interval against a longshot band's wide one to see why long prices need far more events before a deviation means anything.