Synthetic sport adapter

Tennis

Point–game–set synthetic matches (best-of-three games proxy).

Model tennis-point v1.1.0 · family point-game-set

Simulation settings

tennis-point v1.1.0 · every run is a pure function of these inputs and the seed.

Sample

SeedSame seed and settings always reproduce this run.

IterationsEvents simulated. Observed frequency converges on the model as this grows.

Market

Odds sourcePrice from the model, or supply the board yourself and study how the model disagrees with it.

Margin %Overround the pricing model loads onto the fair line.

Pricing noise %± random error the market makes about the true probability before margin.

De-vig methodHow the margin-adjusted column removes the overround. Methods disagree most on the longest price.

Performance model

Player A per-set win probabilityMatch is first-to-two sets, so P(match) = p²(3 − 2p) — a small set edge becomes a large match edge.

Run the adapter to compare four probabilities for synthetic participants.