Synthetic sport adapter

Soccer

Low-scoring 1X2 synthetic matches with draw probability.

Model soccer-1x2 v1.1.0 · family low-scoring-count

Simulation settings

soccer-1x2 v1.1.0 · every run is a pure function of these inputs and the seed.

Sample

SeedSame seed and settings always reproduce this run.

IterationsEvents simulated. Observed frequency converges on the model as this grows.

Market

Odds sourcePrice from the model, or supply the board yourself and study how the model disagrees with it.

Margin %Overround the pricing model loads onto the fair line.

Pricing noise %± random error the market makes about the true probability before margin.

De-vig methodHow the margin-adjusted column removes the overround. Methods disagree most on the longest price.

Performance model

Home expected goalsPoisson rate for the home side. Raising both rates lowers the draw share.

Away expected goalsPoisson rate for the away side. The gap between the two rates drives the moneyline.

Draws are a real outcomeOn: a three-way 1X2 market. Off: ties resolve by overtime coin-flip and the market is two-way.

Run the adapter to compare four probabilities for synthetic participants.