Synthetic sport adapter

Golf

Stroke-play field ranking for synthetic golf rounds.

Model golf-stroke v1.1.0 · family round-stroke

Simulation settings

golf-stroke v1.1.0 · every run is a pure function of these inputs and the seed.

Sample

SeedSame seed and settings always reproduce this run.

IterationsEvents simulated. Observed frequency converges on the model as this grows.

Market

Odds sourcePrice from the model, or supply the board yourself and study how the model disagrees with it.

Margin %Overround the pricing model loads onto the fair line.

Pricing noise %± random error the market makes about the true probability before margin.

De-vig methodHow the margin-adjusted column removes the overround. Methods disagree most on the longest price.

Performance model

Players in the fieldMore players spread the same overround across more prices, which is where multi-runner margin compounds.

Run the adapter to compare four probabilities for synthetic participants.