Synthetic sport adapter

American football

Discrete scoring / drive-style synthetic football matches.

Model football-drive v1.1.0 · family drive-discrete

Simulation settings

football-drive v1.1.0 · every run is a pure function of these inputs and the seed.

Sample

SeedSame seed and settings always reproduce this run.

IterationsEvents simulated. Observed frequency converges on the model as this grows.

Market

Odds sourcePrice from the model, or supply the board yourself and study how the model disagrees with it.

Margin %Overround the pricing model loads onto the fair line.

Pricing noise %± random error the market makes about the true probability before margin.

De-vig methodHow the margin-adjusted column removes the overround. Methods disagree most on the longest price.

Performance model

Home expected pointsMean score for the home side.

Away expected pointsMean score for the away side. The difference of the means is the true spread.

Per-team scoring SDStandard deviation of each team's score. Too small makes the sport deterministic and destroys calibration.

Run the adapter to compare four probabilities for synthetic participants.