Probability games (secondary)
Casino probability models
Transparent house-edge mathematics with simulated unit paths. Included to illustrate ruin risk and edge — not to encourage gambling. This section is separate from the Sports Probability Laboratory.
Guide
How this lab works
Casino Lab
House-edge games with transparent bet math, bankroll paths, and strategy comparisons.
Games include roulette (European/American), blackjack, baccarat, craps, and slots with configurable RTP/volatility where relevant.
Unlike sports labs that can inject model edge via mispricing, casino bets are designed so the house edge is known and usually negative for the player.
Real-world use case
- Compare European vs American roulette on the same bet type to quantify the extra zero’s cost.
- Run flat staking then Martingale on a red/black bet to see how progression interacts with house edge and finite bankroll.
Casino bet tables and house edge
Fair probability, payout, house edge, and player EV for each listed bet type.
- Fair probability — chance of winning under the rules model.
- Payout — stated odds paid on a win (e.g. 1:1 even money).
- House edge — long-run expected fraction of each stake kept by the house.
- Player EV — typically the negative of house edge for these tables.
- Strategy breakdown — flat vs configured stake path on the same round sequence.
Real-world use case
- Pick a high house-edge bet (e.g. single-number roulette) and a low one (even money) and compare drawdowns over the same iteration count.
- Remember: lowering stake size reduces dollar volatility but does not remove house edge.
Bankroll paths and drawdown
Equity and bankroll charts show path risk, not just end profit.
Max drawdown answers: “How deep did the trough get relative to a prior peak?” Strategies with similar end ROI can have very different drawdown profiles — especially progressive stakes like Martingale.
Use drawdown together with longest losing streak, bankruptcies (Casino Lab), and confidence intervals on win rate when available.
Real-world use case
- In Strategy Lab, compare flat staking vs Martingale on the same seed: end bankroll can look similar in lucky runs while drawdown and ruin risk diverge sharply.