Novus Odds
 
ConceptsIntermediate· 5 min read· 4 steps

Understand the Repeated Price experiment

Why a price with a high chance of at least one win can still have a most-likely outcome that loses units.

ShareXFacebookLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail
Open the Repeated Price experiment
  1. 1

    Pick a price and trial count

    Choose an American price and the number of independent trials. The lab computes the full binomial distribution of win counts.

  2. 2

    Read P(at least one win)

    A long price over many trials often has a high chance of at least one winner — that is not the same as being profitable.

  3. 3

    Compare to net units

    The distribution table pairs each win count with its probability and net units. The single most likely win count can still be a net loss.

  4. 4

    Tie it to expectation

    At fair prices the long-run expectation is zero before margin. Short samples stay volatile, and margin tilts the whole thing negative.

Key takeaways

  • P(≥1 win) is not profitability.
  • The most likely outcome can lose units.
  • Margin makes fair-looking prices negative long-run.
Related breakdowns guide →All tutorials →
Responsible use: these tutorials teach probability mathematics with synthetic data. They do not identify real-world profitable selections. Read the responsible-use page.