ConceptsIntermediate· 6 min read· 4 steps
Read the discrepancy detector
Tell observable market structure apart from look-ahead signals that only exist because this is a simulation.
- 1
One ranked surface
The detector aggregates every edge figure into a single list, sorted by severity and magnitude, so you read them together instead of hunting across panels.
- 2
Observable signals
No-vig fair gap and arbitrage come from the prices alone — real market structure you could in principle see live.
- 3
Look-ahead signals
Model-vs-market and +EV depend on the hidden true probability. They are labelled look-ahead because you could never know them before a real event.
- 4
Calibration drift
Observed win rate vs price-implied rate, flagged only when statistically significant — a bridge between the observable and the look-ahead groups.
Key takeaways
- Observable signals are real market structure.
- Look-ahead signals are illustrative, not realizable.
- Calibration drift must clear significance to flag.