Novus Odds
 
Getting startedBeginner· 7 min read· 4 steps

Reading a Novus breakdown

Decode edge, EV, vig, ROI, and drawdown — the shared vocabulary behind every lab panel.

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Try it in the Odds Lab
  1. 1

    Start with implied probability

    Convert the American price to its break-even probability. That is the bar a selection must clear before any model of 'true' chance enters the picture.

  2. 2

    Compare to the true probability

    Edge is true minus implied. Positive edge means the model's assumed chance beats the price — a model advantage inside the lab, never a live-market guarantee.

  3. 3

    Separate EV from observed ROI

    Expected value is the average result if the true probability is correct. Observed ROI is what actually happened after variance. They differ, and that difference is variance teaching, not a bug.

  4. 4

    Respect vig and drawdown

    Overround raises the bar for a profitable edge, and drawdown shows path risk even when EV is positive. A strategy can be +EV and still endure brutal troughs.

Key takeaways

  • Edge = true − implied.
  • EV is a forecast; observed ROI includes variance.
  • Vig and drawdown are always working against you.
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Responsible use: these tutorials teach probability mathematics with synthetic data. They do not identify real-world profitable selections. Read the responsible-use page.