Novus Odds
 
LabsIntermediate· 7 min read· 4 steps

Model a player prop distribution

Build a fictional scoring distribution, sweep the line, and find where expected value crosses zero at a fixed juice.

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Open the Props Lab
  1. 1

    Define the distribution

    Set mean points, standard deviation, minutes, usage, and an opponent modifier. These shape the synthetic distribution the line is measured against.

  2. 2

    Set the line and juice

    Pick an over/under line and the juice odds. The lab computes the over probability and compares it to the price-implied break-even.

  3. 3

    Sweep the line

    The line sweep shows how over probability and EV move as the line shifts. Find the line where EV flips sign for your distribution and juice.

  4. 4

    Add uncertainty

    Increase minutes uncertainty to widen the distribution — the same line now yields a different push/over/under balance.

Key takeaways

  • Names and stats are placeholders for distribution math.
  • The line sweep locates the EV break-even.
  • Wider distributions change the over/under balance.
Related breakdowns guide →All tutorials →
Responsible use: these tutorials teach probability mathematics with synthetic data. They do not identify real-world profitable selections. Read the responsible-use page.