Novus Odds
 
LabsBeginner· 8 min read· 4 steps

Run your first Odds Lab experiment

Configure a synthetic two-outcome market, pick a selection filter, and read the buckets, equity curve, and discrepancy panel.

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Open the Odds Lab
  1. 1

    Set the market shape

    Choose an odds range, market overround, and pricing uncertainty. These define how the synthetic prices scatter around the true probabilities.

  2. 2

    Pick a selection mode

    All events, favorites, underdogs, an edge filter, or an odds threshold. Selection mode decides which events you 'bet', and it changes both sample size and variance.

  3. 3

    Run and read the buckets

    Each odds bucket shows events, win rate, average implied vs true probability, and ROI. Empty buckets show '—', not a fake zero.

  4. 4

    Check the discrepancy detector

    The ranked discrepancy panel summarizes model-vs-market gaps, +EV flags, and calibration drift. Look-ahead signals use the hidden true probability and are illustrative only.

    Tip: Enable the A/B compare arm to run two selection rules on the identical tape.

Key takeaways

  • Selection mode drives sample size and variance.
  • Buckets are a frequency map of the market.
  • Look-ahead signals are educational, not realizable.
Related breakdowns guide →All tutorials →
Responsible use: these tutorials teach probability mathematics with synthetic data. They do not identify real-world profitable selections. Read the responsible-use page.